ABSTRACT
Turkey's unemployment problem since 1950 has been engaged in
agena. Turkey's young population workable form a large part of the population.
Considering that youth unemployment is a big problem for Turkey.
The youth unemployment problem is not only Turkey's problem,
is a problem of every country in the world. The total unemployment rate of
youth unemployment in our country is almost twice. The policies pursued by
Turkey in recent years there has been a decrease.
Youth unemployment has an important place in the prevention
education. In this paper we analyze situation and causes of youth unemployment.
We used the monthly data which contains data for the period of 2005-2010.
INTRODUCTION
UNEMPLOYMENT
One of the
basic indicators of a country's economic is devolopment status and the quality
of the labor force. Countries should use their human resources remain in the
most effective way of production. Countries have to face many problems when
thses resources remain unused. From this perspective, the problem of
unemployment, has become a common problem of every country.
The problem of
unemployment in Europe and the United States is growing with each passing day.
Evalving technology and globalization leads to an increase in unemployment.
Unemployment problem is caused by poverty in underdeveloped countries. In these
countries trying to apply policies to create employment.
Turkey is one
of the main problems unemployment all over the world. Especially with the
recent economic crisis, unemployment and poverty have increased accordingly. Many world countries, youth unemployment rates are
higher than the overall unemployment rate. In the process of globalization in
recent years, The youth unemployment rate is also increasing.
YOUTH
UNEMPLOYMENT
According to the International Labour Organization's definition
of the young unemployed; Located between the ages of 15-24, who work more than
an hour during the reference period, and actively seeking a job is defined as a
person. In developing countries like Turkey, the cause of the problem of youth
unemployment; Transition from the industrial to the service sector economy
based on agriculture, skills mismatch, level of education, lack of employment
policies for youth, young population density, wage bargaining, minimum wages
and other similar causes applications.
In
this article, the state of youth unemployment, causes and suggested solutions
were investigated.
YOUTH
UNEMPLOYMENT AND İTS
CAUSES
When
we look at youth unemployment in many countries is more than the total
unemployment rate. Even this rate in a year that has more than doubled. Youth
unemployment is higher than the total unemployment is the major cause of the
majority of young people is the first time the job search.
As will be seen below in Table 1 the total unemployment
rate in some countries between the years 2005-2009 and are given a combination
of youth unemployment.
Table-1 :
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
||||||
General
|
Young
|
General
|
Young
|
General
|
Young
|
General
|
Young
|
General
|
Young
|
|
Turkey
|
10.9
|
19.9
|
10.5
|
19.1
|
10.5
|
20.0
|
11.2
|
20.5
|
14.3
|
25.3
|
ABD
|
5.1
|
11.3
|
4.7
|
10.5
|
4.7
|
10.5
|
5.8
|
12.8
|
9.4
|
17.6
|
England
|
4.7
|
12.2
|
5.4
|
13.9
|
5.3
|
14.4
|
5.4
|
14.1
|
7.8
|
18.9
|
Germany
|
11.3
|
15.2
|
10.4
|
13.6
|
8.7
|
11.7
|
7.6
|
10.4
|
7.8
|
11.0
|
Spain
|
9.2
|
19.7
|
8.6
|
17.9
|
8.3
|
18.2
|
11.4
|
24.6
|
18.1
|
37.9
|
Italy
|
7.8
|
24.0
|
6.9
|
21.6
|
6.2
|
20.3
|
6.8
|
21.3
|
7.9
|
25.4
|
Ireland
|
4.8
|
9.7
|
4.7
|
9.8
|
4.7
|
10.0
|
5.8
|
12.5
|
12.2
|
25.9
|
Switzerland
|
4.5
|
8.8
|
4.1
|
7.7
|
3.7
|
7.1
|
3.4
|
7.0
|
4.2
|
8.2
|
According to Table 1; If
we were to pay attention to the data of the year 2009 in the United States the
effects of the global crisis, the pressure on the unemployment rate of the
state is seen. In Turkey, the general
unemployment rate is 14.3%, the youth unemployment rate is 25.3%. That is
almost twice the general unemployment rate.
In times of crisis, fluctuations in the business cycle and
structural features of the market due to the young population of this state is
the most affected part. Because in times of recession slows down and comes to a
halt recruitment.
Of young people who have recently entered the market, the
less benefit in the event of job opportunities remain and work life begins as
unemployed. On the Republic of Turkey, as in many economic crises that have
experienced the greatest impact was experienced in the 2001 crisis. Many banks
became bankrupt and thousands of skilled tradesmen closed the shutters were
added to the army of unemployed young labor force.
EDUCATİON AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Turkey
is one of the causes of youth unemployment in the education system and the
educational level is determined. Turkey, a decrease in youth unemployment to
catch the train to Turkey to train young people in the unemployment rate
decreases to catch a robust configurations in the education system should be
established to.
In Turkey in Table 2 shows unemployment rates by educational
attainment.
Table-2:
Level/Years
|
Less than high school
|
High school
|
Vocational or technical school
|
Higher Education
|
2005
|
10.1
|
13.9
|
13.6
|
10.0
|
2006
|
9.8
|
14.0
|
11.8
|
9.6
|
2007
|
9.8
|
13.9
|
12.0
|
9.7
|
2008
|
10.7
|
14.1
|
11.7
|
10.3
|
2009
|
13.9
|
18.0
|
15.6
|
12.1
|
Source: Household labor force survey 2010
Education levels in the highest rates in individuals with
high school or equivalent level of education can be seen. The
unemployment rate high schools, vocational or technical school training in
individuals with high levels of the reasons that; lack of school-based field of
employment, skills mismatch, minimum wage and displayed as a lack of training
and similar applications.
Wage and Qualification Mismatch
Other
causes of youth unemployment and skills mismatch in expectations is charged. When
young people start looking for jobs for the first time, they will have their
first job and wage level is easier to quit work because they do not like.
Therefore, young people are trained in a business area and a fee at a level to
satisfy themselves having to exist in the process of changing your job search
or business.
Youth
Unemployment Theories
Youth
unemployment basing their reasons are many theories trying to explain.
1.
Job Search Theory
Job
search theory young workers less gifted and talented young people is divided
into two. This theory is based on two main proposals. First, the young working
population, yet are unfamiliar business environment due to their participation.
Secondly, young people who are less skilled, school life tend to leave as early
as possible. Talented young people because of their ability longer life is
education. According to this theory, high unemployment among young people,
young's work is directly proportional to the frequency of replacement.
2.
Selective-Redundancy Theory
According
to this theory, dismissal of the employer, you need to make a choice prefer to
remove young workers. There are many reasons for this situation. First, young
workers, workers within the profession they are usually the least investment. Second,
employers track the LIFO policy. This policy is not new entrants to work and
change jobs often because of a job, due to the short residence time is running
against young people. The third reason, dismissal compensation is proportional
to the duration of the worker's services, young workers in layoffs take place
in the first row is the result.
3.
Life Cycle Theory
This
theory of youth unemployment and low wages in jobs that have less of a
long-term career prospects asserts that focused. It also leads young people to
change jobs. Young's experience at least that is difficult to find qualified
for. Young business off the income they give more importance to the quality of
a team.
4. Trend Theories
Increasing
trend in youth unemployment, which is related to these theories, the cause of
the social structure and are difficult to measure, such as social behavior is
caused by a number of reasons. There are two basic approaches on this topic.
According to the first approach, frequency of changing jobs has increased in
the industrial economy. The second approach, the trend in youth unemployment,
young labor force to changes in demand and supply bonds.
5. Queue- Unemployment Theory
This
theory, adult wages of young workers from receiving favorable situation is
described in the form of dismissal. The assumption of this theory in the labor
market between different age groups, as revealed by traditional wage
differentials are a number of factors. As a result, they receive higher wages
for adult workers, young workers are unemployed older they fall into.
Determinants of Unemployment Literature
Made
regarding the determinants of unemployment in the literature there are many
studies. Some of these studies are examined for micro-and micro economy.
Monterns (1970) would settle wage labor force looking for
work; educational level of the workforce, skills and job search duration and
the revenue in this period is due to the self-sustaining is located. Monsterns
applying the Phillips curve in the model. In the short term, demand outstrips
supply in the inflationary period, while increasing the demand for labor
employers, labor characteristics and criteria they expect will minimize. In
this way, the labor wage inflation caused by a negative correlation between
price increases and unemployment.
Lippman and McCall (1976) model of job search in that they
create situations where people remain unemployed, the job search duration:
education, skills, and the total number of job offers has determined that
determined by local demand conditions. Forelle (1997) Russia "determinants
of unemployment duration in the risk-calculation section for calculating the
waiting-time model has been applied.
Valadkh (2003) in his study of unemployment reasons for Iran
between the years 1968-2000 were examined in simultaneous equations. The rate
of unemployment and economic uncertainty increases as output gaps so that the
positive relationship exists between.
Tasci and Ozdemir (2006) Probit models they use applications
in Turkey and in the long term unemployment rate U-shaped relationship was
found between the level of education. Accordingly, long-term unemployment rate
there was no relationship between education and primary education level
positively correlated with the level of secondary education are included. University-level
education are negative relationship between the unemployment rate.
Türkyılmaz and Ozer (2008) in studies of Johansen
co-integration analysis and Turkey have examined the unemployment rate. As
variable rates, real wages, productivity and employment rates are used.
Data and Methodology
Following
examination of the literature Turkey "in the youth unemployment rate in
determining Valadkh NEW (2003), Education and Ashipal (2010) was applied
macroeconomic models used by. In the model, there have been some changes in the
variables. Valadkh NEW (2003) "Situated in the model output gap (output
gap) instead of real GDP, while the productivity variables are added to the
model. In practice, the natural logarithmic form of the data are used.
lnUNt = α0 + α1ΔlnPt + α2lnYt + α3lnΔIt + α4lnProd +εt (1)
Of the variables in the model;
UN youth
unemployment rate, the consumer price index P, Y is real GDP has
been deflated by the price index, I
have been deflated by the price index per employee, gross fixed capital
formation, Prod ie output per worker
productivity (real GDP / total employment ratio), εt denotes the error term.
Johansen Co-integration Analysis
Before starting
the series with time series analysis should be investigated whether they are
stationary. In practice, the investigation of stability in capturing structural
break in series or series, which is more effective than other methods of
Phillips-Perron test.
Table- Unit Root Test for the Phillips-Perron
(PP) Test Results
Variables
|
level
|
I
difference
|
Ln UN
|
-1.392945
|
-7.293459***
|
Ln p
|
-2.476156
|
6.206787***
|
Ln y
|
-1.700930
|
-8.178496***
|
Ln I
|
-1.873538
|
-9.947829***
|
Ln prod
|
-2.205346
|
-8.843165***
|
Phillips Peron test, stability test, none (is
constant and trend), bolted, bolted and trend of the three processes are
performed.
RESULT
One of both
economic and social losses of the countries is unemployment. In this respect,
Turkey youth unemployment in order to measure the impact of economic factors
determine the period 2005-2010, monthly data of Johansen co-integration
analysis technique has been employed.
Long-term relationship based on parameters that measure, the
youth unemployment rate, inflation and productivity positively affects Philips
theory can not be confirmed in our analysis for Turkey. On the other hand GDP
growth of 1% decrease in youth unemployment is 3.07%. Again, a 1% increase in
real investment per capita employment of youth unemployment is reduced by 0.4%.
As a result of analysis, we also get some young people in
the fight against unemployment; production and to encourage investment,
increase the amount of investment per worker and as a result positive economic
growth policies apply. Also equipped in all aspects of young people to make
itself the solution of this problem has an important place in.
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